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It’s Sunday. The sun has set. Katy Perry and all that is horrible about corporate America’s involvement with the Super Bowl have gone with it. You’re stuck on the couch, beyond bloated from stuffing your trap with pigs in a blanket, chips and guacamole and seven Bud Light Platinums. The Seattle Seahawks hold a 17-14 lead with seven minutes remaining in the third quarter. Tom Brady and his New England Patriots failed to convert on third down and goal at Seattle’s four yard line. Take the sure three points against Seattle’s defense, right? No, no. Go for it on fourth down, because if the Pats don’t make it, Seattle has horrible field position.

What do you do? Flip a coin? It’s hard to think through the fog of booze and carbs. “What do you do?” asks Dennis Hopper’s Howard Payne from 1994’s blockbuster Speed. “What do you do?”

Refer to 4^th Down Bot. He’s got all the fourth down answers.

Carolina punted on a 4th and 4 at the Arizona 37. I would have gone for it: http://t.co/ReNCna7IjZ

— NYT 4th Down Bot (@NYT4thDownBot) January 3, 2015

Produced by The New York Times in 2013 and upgraded for this NFL season, 4^th Down Bot utilizes a model created by Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics and ten years of data to live-critique coaches’ decisions via the Bot’s web site and on Twitter. The Times published its methodology here. It bases decisions on expected points, which measures the average number of points each situation is worth. The creators admit the model is similar to that developed by David Romer, a University of California, Berkeley economics professor who authored a paper in 2002 exploring  fourth down options. The Times notes more seasons of data differentiate the two models.

“The game is ball possession, and coaches are losing sight of that,” David Leonhardt, editor at The Times, told Bill Littlefield of Only A Game.

The model assumes both the offense and defense are league average, with its goal of scoring as many points as possible. But once the fourth quarter hits, winning becomes the priority. The Bot measures how often teams won following a punt, field goal kick or fourth down attempt using data from NFL games played previously played.

Here is an example from The Times:

A field goal is worth 3 points, if it’s successful. But there is a catch: after scoring, you must kick off to your opponent, which, on average, will begin its drive on the 22-yard line. Judging from the chart above, a first-and-10 from your 22 is worth about 0.4 points. To NYT 4th Down Bot, a field goal is worth 3 points minus the cost of kicking off: 3 – 0.4 = 2.6 points. (Similarly, a touchdown and extra point is worth 7 – 0.4 = 6.6 points.)

What if the kicker misses? It’s a long field goal, about 55 yards, and the success rate of 55-yard field goals is only about 40 percent.

If the kick is no good, the opponent takes over on its 45-yard line. From our chart above, a first-and-10 from there is worth about 1.8 points. In this case, however, it is a first down for your opponent, so the point value from your perspective is –1.8 points.

NYT 4th Down Bot uses the expected points from success, the expected points from failure and the likelihood of each outcome to compute the net value of a decision.

Per the scenario above, 4^th Down Bot would have kicked the field goal and settled for a 17-17 tie with 22 minutes of championship football left.

To be certain, the Bot is a fun tool for couch coaches everywhere rather than a serious, analytical decision-maker. It has its holes (it still doesn’t know what teams are playing, their strengths, or injuries involved). But when you want to look smart in front of friends and family this Sunday following a huge fourth down play, just whip out the Bot. He’s got your back.

“What do you do?” Payne asks again.

Take the three points.

Image via M P R

We mentioned yesterday that the Super Bowl will be available to stream on NBC for freesies. However, if you were to watch via NBCs web stream, you wouldn’t get to see all those commercials everyone would be talking about the next day at work. Social suicide, to be certain! But fear not, cord cutters. Tumblr has you covered.

According to Reuters, NBC will be posting the highly-anticipated (and highly-priced) ads on Tumblr shortly after they air. This will allow people watching via stream, people not watching at all, or fans looking to re-watch their favorites an opportunity to catch all the spots that run during one of advertising’s biggest days.

While many companies post their commercials to sites like YouTube and Vimeo, NBC will curate their own one-stop shop for the ads. For some, the commercials are just as (or perhaps more) important as the game. NBC is smart to offer those taking advantage of their new streaming service to also catch the ads online — not to mention a repository for repeat viewings. It will take a little multi-tab navigation, but at least game streamers will now know what the hell everyone is talking about on Twitter.

(Image via The Inspiration Room)

Make sure your laptop and tablets are locked and loaded come Super Bowl Sunday. You’re going to need them.

NBCUniversal today announced plans to live stream 11 hours of Super Bowl content, no strings attached. Those strings typically include a log-in process with the consumer’s cable or satellite account information. NBC will not be streaming via mobile app, however, as they do not have NFL live streaming rights. But with a tablet or phablet and the right web browser installed, streaming from nbcsports.com/liveextra shouldn’t be an issue.

The 11 hours, which is five hours too long (figure 3 ½ hours for the game, 45 minutes each pre and post-game shows) will be followed by the midseason premier of The Blacklist. That’s quite a gift for cord cutters that happen to love both Marshawn Lynch and James Spader. NBC’s coverage starts at noon ET and figures to end around 10 pm ET.

NBC’s motive for its “Super Stream Sunday” is to promote its TV Everywhere marketing campaign, naturally entitled “Watch TV Without the TV.” TV Everywhere is the practice of content providers using authenticated methods, such as streaming or video on-demand, to allow customers to access content they already pay for via the internet or mobile devices.

“We are leveraging the massive digital reach of the Super Bowl to help raise overall awareness of TV Everywhere by allowing consumers to explore our vast TVE offering with this special one-day-only access, said Alison Moore, general manager and executive vice president of TV Everywhere and NBCUniversal.

Cord cutters beware – after the Super Bowl, TV Everywhere will only work with a valid user name and password associated with one’s provider account. But maybe this is NBC’s one big step in a direction of genuinely free live streaming – a future of connecting to a stream without a provider account.

“Consumer behavior is changing and people are looking to have content when they want it and where they want it,” Rob Hayes, executive vice president of NBC Digital told USA Today last month.

Katy Perry fans are also in luck. According to the press release, this is the first time NBC Sports Extra Live is live streaming the halftime show.

NBC did add that users will “receive consistent messaging in and around the experience about the ease in authenticating after the end of The Blacklist.”

(Image via The Inspiration Room)