Use Math to Avoid Groupthink When Filling Out Your NCAA Bracket

Everybody has their own way of filling out their NCAA bracket. Some go by chalk, some pick a lot of upsets, some use computer models, some use coin flips. It’s a personal thing, filling out one’s bracket, and the great part is that none of them are wrong.

But there’s really two general ways to play. You can try and pick all the winners, or you can try and end up with the most points. Yes, if you pick the winner 100% of the time you will win your pool right before you are brought to the authorities because you are certainly a time traveling super villain. But if your goal is to win money or jellybeans or bragging rights, sometimes it’s better to play a little more fast and loose.

Wired posted their guide on using some simple math to help you find value picks for your bracket. The logic is fairly easy. The general population usually does pretty well on their bracket — about 80% correct or so. Nobody really thinks a 16 is going to beat a 1. Lots of second- and third-seeded teams are chosen. If you play online and look at who everyone else in your pool picked, you’ll see a lot of overlap. It’s just the way these things work. These things tend to get clumped together. But breaking away from that pack, and doing it smartly, might be the key to success.

Say Kentucky ends up running the table and taking the championship. Wired says about 50% of players on ESPN predict that will happen. If you picked Kentucky, good for you, but so did half of the people in your pool. So then the total points competition comes down to those random little games that happen in the rounds of 64 and 32. Your fate may very well ride on Stephen F. Austin State University. If you’re comfortable with that fate and confident in your picks, then by all means go for it. But if you want to get a little adventurous, try bucking some trends.

No, I’m not saying pick an upset for every game, but the way Wired lays it out makes sense. Some teams (based on the total picks vs. their expected win probability) are tremendously overrated. Some are flying under the radar. It’s a gamble, but leaning on those big discrepancies can help you stand out in your pool. Being the only one to pick Utah to make the Final Four is a risk. If they do manage to squeak it out, however, chances are you’ll be one of the only people who picked them to do so. If your pool uses a points system based on round, you’re in an even better position.

The Internet makes it so easy to end up in some giant pool that a friend of a friend invited you to join. If you’re comfortable in your method, stick with it. Chances are you’ll end up in that big group of players in the middle when all is said and done. But remember, that chunk doesn’t end up in the money. Luck helps, but you need to take chances to win these things. Fighting groupthink seems like a good way to do so. Does this mean I picked Villanova to win it all? I did! Is that because I know nothing about college basketball and this seemed like a reasonable approach? It is!

Of course, you may know more about the sport than I. Trust your instincts, but don’t be afraid to blaze your own trail every so often.

(Header image via Chad Cooper)