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OOTP Experiment — International All-Stars, Pt. 3: The Rest-of-the-World Series

It’s been a long road leading to this—if a prefatory article on Monday and the regular season on Wednesday can be said to qualify as long. The showdown has come: Venezuela and the Dominican Republic facing off, best of nine, for the championship of (non-American) all-time national baseball teams.

After Wednesday’s results, one could be forgiven for thinking this series a formality. The Dominican Saints ran rings around their seven opponents in the regular season to the tune of a 112-42 record. The Venezuela Oilers earned a wild-card berth, but finished 22 games back in doing so. What hopes did they have?

I spent a little time rummaging through the internals of the two teams, looking for some vulnerability in the Dominicans that Venezuela might be able to exploit. One brief hope was a fine Venezuelan record, 20-10, against southpaw starters. Too bad the entire Dominican pitching staff, starters and relievers, is right-handed.

This suggested the alternative of packing the Oilers’ lineup with lefties, but that doesn’t quite work either. Carlos Gonzalez was their only starter who bats left-handed, with main catcher Victor Martinez a switch-hitter. Backups Pablo Sandoval at third base (switch) and Bobby Abreu in right field (left) would help, but there could be no full-bore platoon assault on the Dominican arms.

Worse, Venezuela’s pitchers might be mismatched. The Oilers carried two southpaw starters in Johan Santana and Wilson Alvarez. They would face a Dominican lineup with just one left-handed regular, Robinson Cano.

The one weakness Venezuela could attack might be one they would scarcely see. Dominican starting pitchers led the league in ERA, but their bullpen came in last. Keep it close and get into the pen, and Venezuela could steal a few games. But with the Dominican starting five averaging almost 7 2/3 innings a start while posting 40 complete games, a bullpen strategy could be futile.

Anything can happen in a short series: that’s sabermetric gospel by now. Regardless, it felt like Venezuela would need something special on their side if they were to overcome a monster Dominican squad. I considered quitting my policy of computer control and managing the Venezuela Oilers myself.

Then I decided they had the odds stacked against them badly enough, and left it with the AI.

Thus began the Rest-of-the-World Series.

Game One

Alejandro Pena took the mound for the Dominicans, while the Venezuelans sent out Felix Hernandez. This looks like a mismatch to contemporary fans. It was, but the other way.

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Yes, that’s a young Albert Pujols on defense. Thanks for noticing.

I watched this opening game using the broadcast option. Play-by-play was given for each pitch; offensive and defensive ratings were shown for each player on the field; ambient ballpark sounds provided atmosphere, including “Take Me Out to the Ball Game” after six and a half. (It was admittedly incongruous to hear fans chattering in recognizable English during a game theoretically being held in the Dominican Republic, but you can’t fault OOTP for playing the percentages.)

The Saints touched up Felix for two runs in the second, then let Cesar Cedeno finish the work. He homered off Hernandez in the third, and tripled in the fifth, coming home on Vladimir Guerrero’s sacrifice fly. Felix would leave after five, down 4-0.

Pena made that score hold up. He faced just one over the minimum for the first seven frames, and completed his shutout in a crisp 96 pitches. Anyone anticipating a Dominican rout got no contrary evidence from this 4-0 blanking.

Game Two

I went with the webcast option for this game. Anyone who has followed a game on the MLB At Bat app will be on familiar ground, the story coming in pitch by pitch. There’s a pitch-tracking box, showing locations. (I must report the harsh realism of OOTP: the tracker will show umpires missing balls-and-strikes calls.) For pure nerdish pleasure, there is even a rolling win probability measure for the teams.

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Cueto really has his game face on. You can’t read him at all. (Actually, I just didn’t bother adding faces to players.)

Johnny Cueto got the ball for the DR, while Johan Santana started for Venezuela. The Oilers broke their drought early, scoring three in the first on two triples, an error, and two productive outs. Manny Ramirez brought Tony Fernandez home in the Saints’ first, but Venezuela immediately got that tally back on Luis Aparicio’s RBI single. A Carlos Gonzalez homer opened a two-run fifth that salted away the game, 6-1 to the visiting Venezuelans.

Santana went eight, giving up just three hits and the lone run. He was pulled for Wilson Alvarez to pitch a garbage ninth despite having thrown just 84 pitches. Cueto took the loss, the first time all year he lost consecutive decisions. The Dominican bullpen belied its seeming weakness to pitch four scoreless innings. Oddly, Pedro Martinez was among the relievers, retiring a lone batter in the ninth. Didn’t they have other uses for him?

Regardless, Venezuela had managed to split the opening games held at the Dominican Republic. Their task was down to winning four of seven rather than five of nine, and they now had the home field advantage, for whatever that might be worth.

Game Three

I had to stop dallying with the snazzier methods of game-watching and strip down my viewing experience, lest I be running this replay well into the weekend. A pity for me, as this was the first game of the series that cried out to be savored.

Juan Marichal of the Saints and Kelvim Escobar of the Oilers got the call, and pitched a close-fought duel. Escobar got help from three double plays in the first four innings to keep posting zeroes, while Vladimir Guerrero’s muff of Richard Hidalgo’s fly ball hung Marichal with an unearned run in the second. Both pitchers held the line until the seventh, when Vladdy atoned with a RBI single to tie it, and Edgardo Alfonzo took Marichal deep to untie it.

Ugueth Urbina pitched a perfect eighth to set up the save for Francisco Rodriguez. Miguel Tejada greeted him with an infield hit, and one pop-out later, pinch-hitter Felipe Alou singled him to third. Cesar Cedeno tied the game 2-2 with a base hit, before K-Rod buckled down to strike out Guerrero and Manny Ramirez.

Venezuela weathered the disappointment of the blown save. Victor Martinez jumped on Rafael Soriano’s first pitch for a single. Bobby Abreu grounded out, but Edgardo Alfonzo worked a walk. Pinch-hitter Melvin Mora laced a single to right, so fast to Guerrero that Martinez was held up at third. This proved the sound play, as Luis Aparicio lined the walk-off hit over short to give Venezuela the 3-2 win.

Game Four

The starters for this game were close to a shock: Felix Hernandez and Alejandro Pena again. Three-man rotations for a playoff series being held in the 1980 era certainly weren’t strange, but the pitcher being excluded was. Would Pedro Martinez not take the mound to defend his 20-game winning streak? Would the Dominicans really try to win it all without starting him?

By purely analytical standards, this was no outrage. I observed myself that, by FIP, Pedro was the fourth-best starter on his team that season. yet it felt so wrong that I almost intervened with the AI.

Almost. But the game went on.

The Saints broke up a scoreless contest in the fourth, Carlos Santana driving Albert Pujols home. Venezuela tried to limit the damage with a two-out intentional walk to Tony Fernandez, bringing up the pitcher. Pena made them pay with a bases-clearing double.

That was effectively the ballgame. Both teams scored in the seventh and eighth without really altering the balance of power, and the Dominicans cruised to a 6-3 win to pull the series back even. Pena got his second straight win against King Felix, while Rafael Soriano pitched the ninth for the courtesy three-run save.

Despite the downbeat end, it was another split. The challenge was down to three out of five, as the series went back to Dominican turf for the next two.

Game Five

Cueto and Santana on the mound again. The three-man postulate seemed confirmed. I could only trust that the AI knew what it was doing in holding out Pedro.

This one got away from the Oilers quickly. Pujols rang up a three-run dinger in the first, and added a solo shot in the third that put the Dominican Republic ahead 5-0. Johnny Cueto recovered from his Game Two struggles to register a four-hit shutout, his sinker producing 19 ground-outs on the day. The 6-0 whitewashing gave the 3-2 series lead to the Saints.

Game Six

There is something about Game Six that, even more so than Game Seven, produces memorable baseball. Think back on the World Series of 1975, 1986, 1991, and 2011. Now this Game Six can, in its modest way, join that group.

(Yes, I know those were seven-game series and this one is nine. Leave me alone: I’m being poetic.)

This wonderfully crazy game was defined by its pitchers, but not the way you would expect. Marichal and Escobar both gave up first-inning homers, Miguel Cabrera with a two-run shot and Manny Ramirez with a three-run dinger. Bats cooled off for a couple innings, including a half-hour rain delay in the second, and then the fourth inning turned things upside-down.

Venezuela scored two in its half, capped by pitcher Kelvim Escobar’s RBI single. In the home half, Juan Marichal got his own run-scoring hit with two outs. He then advanced on an Escobar balk, and came home on Cesar Cedeno’s single that knocked Escobar out of the game. Both starters had driven in runs, and there was more to come.

The Oilers tied the game at five the next inning on a two-out rally, but lost a chance to go ahead the next inning when Dave Concepcion made the final out trying to go first-to-third on Cabrera’s single. The bottom of the sixth saw Marichal contribute again with the bat, another two-out RBI single that made it 6-5 Dominican.

Marichal got lifted in the seventh for Bartolo Colon, who promptly balked Carlos Gonzalez home to level things at 6-6. After the stretch, Oilers reliever Rafael Betancourt fought through a jam left to him by Anibal Sanchez, but with second and third and two gone, intentionally walked Carlos Santana to get to Adrian Beltre. The Dominicans countered by pinch-hitting David Ortiz, but he could only roll one over to third to snuff the threat.

Here the madness, or at least the scoring, subsided for a long while. The bullpens locked up the game in the eighth and ninth, and on, and on. Closers Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano came and went, and the deadlock remained. By the 11th inning, both teams had exhausted all their position players, meaning the long-relief pitchers now in the game—Carlos Zambrano for Venezuela and Ramon Martinez for the DR—had to bat for themselves.

Those who know something of Zambrano can guess how this ended. With two gone in the top of the 15th, Zambrano grounded a ball past Robinson Cano, bringing Carlos Gonzalez home from second. Then, in his sixth inning of relief work, he tottered from hits by Cano and Miguel Tejada, but hung on to secure the 7-6 victory.

OOTP-G6Box-Sized
Only thing missing was the threat of Mike Scott pitching the next day.

 

Having secured another split, this one very hard earned, the Venezuelans returned home. The five-of-nine mountain was down to a two-of-three crag, and as hosts of the next two games, they had a chance to win it all at home.

Game Seven

The sequel, as usual, could not top its predecessor. Robinson Cano’s two-run homer in the second gave Alejandro Pena an early lead, and a tack-on run plated on Dave Concepcion’s second error of the day seemed ample insurance for the Saints. But Pena began cracking in the ninth, surrendering his fourth and fifth hits of the day and bringing the tying run to the plate. Rafael Soriano came on to retire Magglio Ordonez for the final out. The Dominicans had their third shutout win, 3-0, and were now within one game of the title.

Game Eight

For the third time, Johan Santana faced Johnny Cueto. It looked like the bad Cueto of Game Two had arrived, with a pair of bases-loaded jams in the first two innings. He got double plays each time to emerge unscathed, and settled down to allow just one more Venezuelan baserunner the rest of his day.

Support came from Felipe Alou. He homered in the fourth to give the Saints the 1-0 lead, then in the sixth singled Manny Ramirez home as part of a two-run frame. It was still 3-0 when Cueto was pulled for a pinch-hitter in the top of the seventh. He had retired 11 straight Oilers at that point, but his pitch count was over 100 and the manager wanted a fresh bat to go for the kill. Julio Franco would strike out looking in Cueto’s place, on the way to a goose-egg seventh.

Venezuela would not capitalize on the opportunity offered. They would manager baserunners each inning against Bartolo Colon and Armando Benitez, but the closest they came to converting was getting Magglio Ordonez up in the eighth with two on and two outs. He would fly out to center, and an inning later pinch-hitter Andres Galarraga would fan at Benitez’s full-count heater to end the game and the series.

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Champagne and instant-merchandising caps are not a DLC.

This series turned on pitching. The Dominicans hurled four shutouts, half the games played, without even using Pedro Martinez to start a game. Their bullpen beat expectations by yielding only two runs in 17 innings, though both runs were the decisive tallies in the pair of one-run games the Venezuelans pulled out. Alejandro Pena was the no-brainer series MVP, with three wins, a 1.05 ERA, and more strikeouts (15) than hits allowed (14). Among batters, Albert Pujols was the standout, going 12-for-31 with four walks. His three home runs and five runs batted in led all players for the series. For Venezuela, Miguel Cabrera with two homers and Edgardo Alfonso with a .407 on-base percentage were offensive achievers.

For the whole season, Carlos Gonzalez won the MVP Award, with Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez 2-3 in the voting. The Cy Young went to Felix Hernandez, a bittersweet award given his nightmare 0-3 postseason pitching against Pena. (Cueto and Pedro were second and third.) Willie Hernandez of the Puerto Rico Sharks got the nod as the league’s top reliever.

There isn’t really much arguing with the result of the Rest-of-the-World Series. The Dominican Republic dominated the regular season in historic fashion, and brought superb pitching to bear to grind out the final triumph. But the Venezuelans need not hang their heads: they made the Dominicans play their best to earn that glory.

My thanks to David Temple, Grand Poobah of TechGraphs, for the opportunity to do something a little out of the usual TG wheelhouse. Signing out.

(Full disclosure: In order to conduct the simulation, I was given a complimentary copy of Out Of The Park 16. I gratefully acknowledge OOTP’s generosity. I even more gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Brad Cook, along with Lukas Berger and Chuck Hauser from OOTP for leading me through the nuances of some unusual roster creation. Had I been less boneheaded, you might have seen this series sooner, and I thank them for pulling me through.)


OOTP Experiment — International All-Stars, Pt. 2: Regular Season

Monday, I introduced the International All-Star tournament, an OOTP 16 simulation involving national teams of the best major league players not born in the United States. Today, we get to the games themselves.

I gave the computer manager free rein to decide starting lineups, pitching rotations, and bullpen assignments. I did actually set up rotations for each team, but the AI, left to its devices, overruled my decisions. This did produce a few problems, such as with Panama, which the computer gave a five-man rotation despite having only four pitchers rated as starters.

This follows from my method of choosing representative seasons for the players. I did not cherry-pick years convenient for pigeon-holing them at particular positions. That means, for instance, Ramiro Mendoza ended up the reliever he was in 2001, rather than the part-time starter he might have been had I selected an earlier year for him.

This produced a few surprises in the field, too. I anticipated that Dave Concepcion would have to play second base for Venezuela, pushed off shortstop by Luis Aparicio. The computer, though, slid Aparicio over, despite his never having played a single game at that position in real life. It also chose some different starters than I did, such as Edgardo Alfonso over Pablo Sandoval at third for Venezuela and Pete Ward over Corey Koskie at third for Canada.

That’s okay. I’m not quite convinced enough of my expertise to insist on my decisions across the board. Besides which, I might unconsciously bias the simulation with my subjective selections. The OOTP AI does not have this problem. Or if it does, someone’s made a way bigger breakthrough than we realized.

Enough explanations. Time for baseball.

The 154-game season opened on April 1, running through to September 15. After the first month, there was the promise of a tight race, with some surprises popping up.

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Enjoy it now. This is the last time there’ll be competition for the top spot.

A stumbling Cuba was an early surprise, and a strong-running Canada maybe a bigger one. Having done a couple of dry-run sims, though, I knew these weren’t flukes. The Mariners were likely to remain a disappointment, while the Beavers might have the stuff to hang in the playoff chase.

Venezuela’s early lead was driven by a truly awesome April from Carlos Gonzalez. His batting line for the month was an insane .466/.530/.932, with a .596 wOBA and 3.0 WAR. He led the league in runs, RBI, homers, and triples. He would not maintain the supernova heat of his streak, though, a 0.3 WAR May pulling him back to the pack (though he still led the league in batting, slugging, homers, and runs scored at month’s end.)

The race took its true shape in May. The Dominican Republic compiled a 21-8 month (with just eight home games in that span) to take a 6 1/2-game lead. Venezuela and Canada were tied for second, with Puerto Rico half a game behind them. The rest of the league was effectively eliminated with 100 games to go: it was a four-horse race.

One result during that month I will note. On May 13, Pedro Martinez of the Dominican Saints lost a 3-2 decision to the Mexico Eagles when a ninth-inning rally fell short. This dropped Martinez’s record to 5-2. You will learn later why this is meaningful.

Truth be told, the league was still a horse race only in the sense that Secretariat at the Belmont was a horse race. A 22-4 June, including the last 16 wins of an 18-game winning streak, put the Dominicans 13 games clear of the field. The only race remaining was for the wild card postseason entry—but that was still very much a race.

Venezuela had the “lead” at the end of June, two games ahead of Canada and Puerto Rico. By the close of July, they had fallen to fourth, a game behind the again-tied Beavers and Sharks. Then it was the Oilers’ turn to hit the gas, a 21-8 August driving them three games clear for the wild card, with Puerto Rico third and Canada one more back in fourth.

By this time, the “Pennant Chase” function had kicked in, letting you preview at a glance upcoming games for playoff contenders. There I saw that Puerto Rico and Canada had an upcoming series together, starting the third of September. When it began, Venezuela was four games ahead of both. Whoever lost the series was all but sunk in the wild-card race.

The Sharks struck early, with a 10-7 win at Canada. Joey Votto’s perfect day—a homer, double, single, and three walks—won him the league’s Performance of the Day honors. It still wasn’t enough to overcome a seven-run PR sixth, sparked by a pair of errors.

But Canada stormed back. Rheal Cormier‘s four-hit shutout and Ryan Dempster’s eight innings of one-run, three-hit ball led the Beavers to 4-0 and 2-1 victories. They won the battle—but lost the war.

While those two were battering each other, Venezuela swept seventh-place Japan, adding a game to its wild-card lead. Worse, Canada’s next series was against the juggernaut Dominican Saints, while Venezuela drew last-place Panama. Venezuela would clinch the wild card with five games to play, though Canada ended the year on a six-game winning streak to make the final gap a respectable two games.

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How it ended. Poor Panama: two months out of first.

The gap between second and first wasn’t nearly as respectable. The Dominicans clinched first place on August 24, with 21 games to play. They finished the season an awesome 112-42, 22 games up on Venezuela. For historical perspective, the Dominicans’ record was two games better than the 1927 Yankees, one better than the 1954 Indians, and trailed only the 116-36 campaign of the 1906 Chicago Cubs. But remember: those last two teams lost the World Series.

The Saints excelled on offense and defense, their 883-572 runs margin leading the league in both categories. Albert Pujols’s .308/.403/.569 with 35 homers paced the team, producing 6.7 WAR; five other batters produced at least 4.5 WAR. Of the 14 position players, all but two had an OPS+ of at least 106. The lineup had effectively no weakness.

Starting pitchers were, if anything, better. Against a league ERA of 3.89, the top four starters in the Dominican rotation all had ERAs below three. The bullpen was surprisingly weak, with five ERAs over five and closer Rafael Soriano at 3.86. The fault is probably disuse: the starters were such workhorses that four of them had more inning pitched than the 226.2 of the entire bullpen! Three of those starters won at least 20 games, including Juan Marichal at 20-7, 2.64 and Johnny Cueto at 21-6, 2.92.

And then there’s Pedro Martinez. We last saw him in mid-May, dropping to 5-2 on the year. He finished at 25-2. For the last four months of the season, Martinez started 22 games. Two were no-decisions; the rest constituted a 20-game winning streak, active at season’s end.

Twenty. Games. Straight.

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There are no words. Not at a “safe for work” site, anyway.

Okay, so it wasn’t pure skill. So he had the fourth-best FIP in the rotation; so he had the fourth-best WAR in the rotation. (Cueto led in both.) It’s still a 20-game winning streak. And counting.

Brian Kenny, we have just discovered the bitterest foe to your “Kill the Win” campaign.

Venezuela (90-64) had its own potent offense, aside from Luis Aparicio (51 OPS+) never getting comfortable shifted over to second. Carlos Gonzalez finished the year cold, but still piled up a .320/.395/.624 line, with his 35 homers tying Pujols for the league lead. He led outright in slugging, OPS, wOBA, and position player WAR at 7.1. (Cueto’s 7.7 led the league.) His batting average of .320 was good only for third on his team, behind Miguel Cabrera and league champ Victor Martinez.

Pitching was likewise a step behind the Dominicans, though not a long one. None of the starters managed 20 wins, but the 19-7 Felix Hernandez did take the ERA crown, his 2.42 besting Marichal’s 2.64. Johan Santana was right behind, with an 18-9 record and 2.66 ERA. Closer Francisco Rodriguez had a rough time (4.92 ERA), but setup men Ugueth Urbina and Rafael Betancourt picked him up with good work.

The also-rans in the league I will cover somewhat more briefly.

Canada (88-66) got offensive help from expected sources. Joey Votto led everyone in walks and on-base percentage, while Larry Walker and Russell Martin slugged very well. Martin posted the best catcher’s WAR in the tournament at 6.1. There was also an unexpected source in Pete Ward, selected as a utility infielder. Getting the starter’s role at third base, he hit an even .300 with 24 homers, just behind Walker and Martin.

Canada’s pitching was a bit peculiar. All five starters beat the league ERA average, but in a narrow 3.29 to 3.76 range. All five had winning records, but nothing overwhelming, led by Ryan Dempster’s 17-10 and Ferguson Jenkins’s 17-11. Likewise, Eric Gagne was an effective but not outstanding closer leading an effective but not outstanding pen. One real breakout performance among the pitchers might have driven the Beavers to the wild card, but they did not get it.

Puerto Rico (85-69) likewise had a strong team, just not quite strong enough. Four regulars batted over .300: Alomar, Clemente, Cepeda, and Ivan Rodriguez, though Clemente’s was an empty .310. (Bernie Williams batted .315, but Carlos Beltran was given center field ahead of him, so he got just 173 PAs.) Carlos Delgado put 30 over the wall, with Beltran adding 25.

Front-end pitching was very good. Juan Pizarro yielded a league-low .222 batting average against while posting a 17-11, 2.67 record. Even better by FIP were Javier Vazquez and Joel Piniero, though Piniero posted a lackluster 12-15 record. But the back-end starters were sketchy and the bullpen past Willie Hernandez’s 2.06 ERA was middling, and the Sharks came up short.

Cuba (67-87) wound up mediocre across the board. The only leader in a major category was hurler Camilo Pascual, who threw 263 innings while notching five shutouts, tying him with Juan Marichal. Best in the field were catcher Yasmani Grandal, knocking 24 homers, and Tony Oliva, more solid than spectacular while starting nearly every day. Constant play did much worse for Yoenis Cespedes, who started all but three games and staggered, exhausted, to a -1.3 WAR.

Mexico (66-88) was as punchless as predicted. No player hit double-digit home runs, and the top position player WAR was the 2.1 of Carlos Lopez. Any strength the team had came from its closer, Joakim Soria with a 2.12 ERA and 33 saves, and its starting pitchers, though none of them managed even a .500 record. Fernando Valenzuela scrabbled to a sub-three ERA and a fourth-best 166 whiffs, but it was no repeat of 1981 for him. The team was saved from a worse fate by massive overachievement, beating its Pythagorean projection by nine games.

Japan (59-95) had the weak offense I foresaw from lack of position players in MLB: Hideki Matsui was the only regular whose OPS+ beat the average. The lone offensive highlight was the league-leading 67 stolen bases by Dave Roberts (he was born on Okinawa: he counts), though his 64 percent success rate made it a hollow honor.

Starting pitching wasn’t the strength I anticipated, though Hiroki Kuroda and Hisashi Iwakuma held up well. Yu Darvish went a horrid 4-21, despite leading everyone in strikeouts (186) and K rate (7.9/9 IP). The bullpen was the tournament’s best, led by Takashi Saito’s 1.70 ERA, but it was too little, too late.

Panama (49-105) suffered the pitching “death spiral” I feared for them. Bruce Chen, at 12-17 and 4.24, was the “ace”. Juan Berenguer was hopeless at 1-13, 7.20, while Ed Acosta was the staff punching bag, absorbing a horrific 24 losses. Even Mariano Rivera suffered, with a 4.34 ERA and 24 saves, league worst for a closer. Presumptive batting superstar Rod Carew could only scrape together a .276 average and 90 OPS+, making Carlos Lee and Ben Oglivie the lone batters above league average.

Overall, the league had a notable tilt toward starting pitchers, with seven of the top 10 WAR scores going to hurlers. This is likely due to the managing AI playing to the “home era” of 1980, a time when 250 innings was a solid year’s work and complete games weren’t the rarity of today. It also severely curtailed relief innings, but since I generally gave the teams six-man bullpens rather than a modern seven or eight, this was somewhat mitigated.

So the regular season is over. History has been made—112 wins; Pedro’s 20 in a row—but there is more to come. See you back here Friday, for the Rest-of-the-World Series.

(Full disclosure: In order to conduct the simulation, I was given a complimentary copy of Out Of The Park 16. I gratefully acknowledge OOTP’s generosity. I even more gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Brad Cook, along with Lukas Berger and Chuck Hauser from OOTP for leading me through the nuances of some unusual roster creation. Had I been less boneheaded, you might have seen this series sooner, and I thank them for pulling me through.)


OOTP Experiment — International All-Stars, Pt. 1: The Concept

Early this year, I had a well-received article at The Hardball Times, a member of TechGraphs’ family of sports websites*. In it, I put together all-star teams of major league baseball players born in different countries from the United States, with speculation on which would be the strongest clubs if they faced each other.

(* If TechGraphs is a daughter site to FanGraphs, and FanGraphs is a sister site to The Hardball Times, it thus follows that TechGraphs is THT’s niece. So enjoy this visit from your Auntie Hardball.)

I wasn’t the only person who liked that speculation. I was contacted a while later by Brad Cook with Out of the Park Developments, the sports-sim folks. He suggested that I could use OOTP 16 (recently reviewed here by Bradley Woodrum) to pit those all-star teams against each other, and produce something more concrete than informed guesswork as to who would be best.

No spoiler tags necessary: I took him up on his idea. David Temple was himself kind enough to greenlight the idea of writing up the simulated season for TechGraphs, and here I am.

My series will be in three parts. Today I’m laying out the concept, the participating nations and players, and my handicapping of their chances. Later, I’ll play out a full season with the contending teams, seeing who totally confounds my predictions, and which players do best in this higher league. The final part will be the Rest-of-the-World Series, the top two finishers playing best-of-nine for the title.

For this project, I’ve chosen the eight countries I consider the best of the internationals to square off against each other. You may refer to my original article for how I chose them as the best. You’ll also need to refer to it for the team rosters, as space considerations don’t allow me to re-list all 200 players here.

OOTP-DRRoster-Sized
But here’s a tiny peek at the Dominicans. Ignore the ampersands. There are a few corrections I must make to those rosters. For Mexico’s team, I listed closer Joakim Soria twice; the second pitcher should instead be Luis Ayala. I also listed Tony Gonzalez twice for the Cubans; my substitution for the clone is Yoenis Cespedes. Also for Cuba, I managed to misspell Pedro Ramos’s name as “Predo.”

Yes, sometimes I can’t tell the players apart even with a scorecard.

Now for the teams themselves. I’ll give the countries, my personally chosen nicknames for the teams, plus the number of major-league players each nation has produced through 2014. (Only players who have played in MLB were eligible for my teams. Stinks if you’re Sadaharu Oh or Martin Dihigo, but I needed to compare apples-to-apples performance when making my selections.) I’ll also give capsule estimates of their strengths and failings.

In increasing order of my estimate of their team strength, here are the Elite Eight.

Panama Engineers (53):
For a small player pool, Panama has a solid front line of position players led by Rod Carew, and when they get a lead, Mariano Rivera’s there to slam the door. But the rest of their pitching is thin at best. If their rotation gets overwhelmed, they could go into a death spiral fast.

Japan Suns (61):
Japan is the reverse of Panama. Impressive starting pitching is their key strength, with capable pieces backing in the pen. However, few of their position players have crossed the Pacific, and this leaves them quite vulnerable on the infield and at catcher.

Mexico Eagles (114):
Mexico has pitching, though not with Japan’s depth, and a stronger infield. They are very lacking in power, though — their outfield being particularly punchless.

Canada Beavers (244):
An ace starter in Fergie Jenkins and ace relievers in Eric Gagne and John Axford anchor Canada’s pitching. The position players have real strengths in Joey Votto, Larry Walker, and Russell Martin, plus some holes, including a double-play combo out of the 19th century.

Cuba Mariners (186):
A deep rotation matches Japan’s, with Aroldis Chapman putting the bullpen ahead. Position players range from good to somewhere short of all-time great, with catcher maybe the only true weakness. This is the first team that feels like it could be dominant if dropped into today’s majors.

Puerto Rico Sharks (246):
The rotation is a step behind Cuba’s, the bullpen half a step back. The left half of the infield is not the strongest, but the other positions compensate amply with three Hall of Famers in Cepeda, Alomar, and Clemente. The Ivan Rodriguez/Jorge Posada duo behind the dish is easily the best in the tournament.

Venezuela Oilers (321):
Johan Santana and Felix Hernandez are a superb one-two punch, with a good back of the rotation and K-Rod closing. The infield is outstanding: Cabrera, Concepcion (moved over to second), Aparicio (which is why), and Sandoval. Outfield and catcher settle for being sneaky-good rather than shock-and-awe, but it’s still a great team.

Dominican Saints (618):
The rotation is stacked, from Pedro Martinez and Juan Marichal down to fifth starter Bartolo Colon, while the bullpen has so many good arms there is no clear closer. Three members of the infield (Pujols, Cano, and Beltre) could be going to Cooperstown, and the outfield is so stacked that Vladimir Guerrero is a sub. Leveraging its deep talent pool well, The Dominican Republic looks like the team to beat.

The tournament’s season structure will follow the style of the pre-expansion majors: eight teams in a single league, playing 154 games. I also chose to set the tournament in the year 1980, with the statistical underpinnings of that era. That year was reasonably balanced between offense and defense, without, for example, the smothered batting of the 1960s, the inflated home run figures of the turn of the millennium, or the extreme strikeout totals of today.

This means we shouldn’t expect any records from our players, with the tendencies of the league not biased toward producing 70 homers or 400 strikeouts in a year. Of course, we also shouldn’t expect such outlying numbers because this is effectively a higher league, a level of competition above what most or all of these players ever faced in real life.

The rosters are frozen with the 25 players for each team: no promotions from non-existent minors, and obviously no trades. I turned off injuries, along with suspensions and PED discipline. (Several players wipe their virtual foreheads in relief.) I want this tournament decided as much as possible by the players, not by chance.

As for the players … which versions of them will be playing? Do I go by career totals? Or do I select a specific season for each one, and which one? Will my tournament be populated by 200 guys all having their career years?

I chose a moderate course. I ordered each player’s seasons by WAR, then tallied their plate appearances (for hitters) or innings pitched (for pitchers), best-WAR season on down. The year in which he reached one-third of his career total is what I selected as his representative season. This was intended to produce a good season for each player, without overly rewarding anyone who had one freak breakout year towering over a lower baseline. As I tried to choose players for career achievement rather than lone standout years, it fits with the roster construction.

Of course, there’s always some loophole to mess with your intentions. For me it was the strike year of 1981, artificially reducing WAR by the one-third of games not played. This pulled Fernando Valenzuela’s WAR for his tremendous rookie season down below that of other seasons, enough so that ’81 got chosen as his year.

I could have omnisciently chosen some other year for him, along with similar adjustments for the smaller anomalies along those lines. However, intervening consciously against the algorithm felt like more of a distortion than letting it stand*. So Mexico will gain the full benefit of Fernando-mania for its national squad.

*Besides which, what the heck? It’s just a game.

So that’s your International All-Star league. Join us tomorrow, when they play ball.

(Full disclosure: In order to conduct the simulation, I was given a complimentary copy of Out Of The Park 16. I gratefully acknowledge OOTP’s generosity. I even more gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Brad Cook, along with Lukas Berger and Chuck Hauser from OOTP for leading me through the nuances of some unusual roster creation. Had I been less boneheaded, you might have seen this series sooner, and I thank them for pulling me through.)