Simulating the First 36 NCAAM Games with WhatIfSports

With millions of people filling out NCAA brackets and no doubt millions of, let’s say “jelly beans” being wagered, why not try to get the inside track on the opening round games? With thanks to WhatIfSports and their basketball simulation system (as well as Yahoo! for the bracket), we have the four play-in games plus the 32 opening round games predicted.

To participate in the premium features of WhatIfSports — such as creating or joining a sim league or dynasty — there is a fee. However, the NCAA single game matchup sim is free. Though no word on their methodology behind the sim (what stats are weighed, how heavily, is it a Monte Carlo, etc.) I’ll share my methods. I used the neutral court option and ran each team once. Small sample size is an issue, and rather than spend hours running a full simulation, like the tournament, I’m sticking with the one-and-done style. With that out of the way, lets take a look at the play-in games!

Hampton wins a fairly one-sided matchup, keeping Manhattan at arms length in the first and second half.

Our second play-in game is much more competitive, with Boise State narrowly defeating Dayton.

Robert Morris couldn’tkeep pace with North Florida, getting doubled up on points in the first half. Though they won the second half, it wasn’t enough to overcome the early hole and UNF advances to the field of 64.

Our first power conference team is eliminated in Ole Miss, going down to BYU by doubt digits.

The rest of the results can be found in the brackets below, though note some of opening round upsets. In the Midwest bracket we see Buffalo beating out West Virginia for the classic 5/12 upset and Valparaiso downing Maryland. The upsets continue in the bottom half of the bracket with Butler dropping to Texas.

Moving on to the East bracket, a problem arose. Unfortunately the system did not have Northern Iowa’s 2014-15 season on file, so Wyoming got the upset by default. Boise State toppled Providence for their second win of the tournament and while Virginia beat Belmont, it was a five point game.

History was immediately made in the West bracket, as 16-seed Coastal Carolina shocks the world and beats Wisconsin! BYU defeats Xavier in another upset to finish the surprises for the day.

Events unfolded without much surprise in the upper half of the South bracket. Suddenly UCLA downed SMU, Iowa State fell to UAB and Davidson defeated Iowa, all upsets.

Clearly the surprise was for the first time ever a 1-seed, Wisconsin, lost in their opening game. Whether or not this proves to come true remains to be seen, but this bracket will probably do better than the one I filled out.

(Header image via Wikipedia)