Football Analytics Site Names J.J. Watt NFL’s Best

Is the NFL ready for its first defensive Most Valuable Player since Lawrence Taylor in 1986? Pro Football Focus is.

The web site, which provides individual player analytics, recently named Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt as its player of the year. Watt’s stiffest competition for the MVP award, Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay, finished second. However, PFF has named its honor the Dwight Stephenson award after the Miami Dolphins offensive lineman. The best players can play any position, PFF says, as opposed to MVPs mainly awarded to quarterbacks or running backs.

PFF watches game tape and grades each player on their ability to execute their roles on each individual play. The PFF staff blends statistics and performance-based scouting (results rather than technique) in their approach. In defining its grading process, PFF states that stats can lie, and there’s context of a statistic that they value.

“If the quarterback throws an accurate first down conversion that is dropped, the quarterback receives the same credit as he would have with a catch,” writes PFF.

Watt finished 2014 with 20.5 sacks, four forced fumbles, one interception, 59 solo tackles, a safety, two touchdowns and three receiving touchdowns.

“Watt is so far out on his own in terms of play that he breaks every graph we create to try and illustrate it, extending axes and generally sitting off on a data point all to himself,” writes Sam Monson, a PFF analyst. “He is completely redefining what we thought a defensive player was capable of, and is only getting better.”

Following a tedious process which involves three different analysts viewing game broadcast and All-22 footage, PFF awards each player a grade between +2.0 and -2.0 in half increments with zero given for an average play. Zero is the most often awarded value with other values given to plays that are an exception – both good and bad. Watt racked up a +107.5 grade. The next highest 3-4 defensive end was Sheldon Richardson of the New York Jets with a +39.9 grade.

Here is an example:

The varying degrees of positive and negative grades add a little bit more context than a simple plus and minus systems. An offensive lineman might surrender a sack on a given play, but how quickly was he beaten? Allowing a defender to slip past and get into the quarterback’s face in 1.9 seconds is obviously much worse than allowing that same sack in 2.7 seconds, so while both plays are negatives, they certainly won’t carry the same exact grade.

Using that same example, if the pressure is surrendered in 1.9 seconds and the quarterback sidesteps the sack, it’s certainly not indicative of the offensive lineman’s pass-blocking acumen, so there’s no reason to change his grade because he “only” surrendered a pressure and not a sack. The goal of the grading is to isolate individual performance as much as possible, fully realizing that there is always a certain level of dependency on teammates in football.

While PFF supports Watt, history does not. The MVP has not hailed from a non-playoff team since 1973. The Texans didn’t make the playoffs, though they did finish 9-7.

The MVP will be awarded January 31.

(Image via Mike)